Africa Faces Devastating Future: Climate Change to Slash GDP, Food Security, and Heal
Africa faces a bleak future as climate change threatens to slash its GDP, food security, and human health, according to a new study by the Center for Global Development (CGD).
The study, titled “The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in The Next Decades”, was released on February 15, 2024, and authored by Philip Kofi Adom, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. The study used a range of climate models and scenarios to project the impacts of climate change on Africa and other developing regions until 2100.
The study found that climate change will have severe and disproportionate effects on Africa, which is already the most vulnerable continent to the changing weather patterns. The study estimated that climate change will reduce the average GDP per capita in Africa by 7.1% by 2100, compared to a scenario without climate change. This is equivalent to a loss of $1,500 per person, or $2.4 trillion for the whole continent.
The study also predicted that climate change will increase the number of people living in extreme poverty by 85 million, and the number of people facing severe food insecurity by 200 million, by the end of the century. The study attributed these impacts to the reduced revenue from crops, the increased prevalence of pests and diseases, the reduced soil fertility and water availability, and the increased land degradation and desertification caused by climate change.
The study highlighted that climate change will affect different regions and sectors differently, depending on their exposure and sensitivity to the climate hazards. The study identified North Africa and Southern Africa as the most affected regions, with projected decreases in rainfall of up to 20% and 40%, respectively, by 2100. The study also singled out agriculture as the most affected sector, with projected losses in crop revenue of up to 30% by 2100.
The study warned that the impacts of climate change will be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has already strained the health systems, disrupted the economic activities, and increased the poverty and inequality in Africa. The study urged the African countries and the international community to take urgent and ambitious actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and to support the most vulnerable populations and sectors.
The study recommended that the African countries should implement low-carbon development strategies and policies that promote renewable energy, energy efficiency, and green infrastructure; enhance their resilience and adaptive capacity by investing in climate-smart agriculture, water management, disaster risk reduction, and social protection; strengthen their institutional and human capacities to access and use climate information and services, and to integrate climate considerations into their planning and budgeting processes; and mobilize domestic and international resources to finance their climate actions, and leverage the opportunities offered by the global climate funds and mechanisms.
The study also called on the developed countries to fulfill their commitments to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 and beyond to support the developing countries in their climate actions; increase their ambition and leadership in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement; and enhance their cooperation and partnership with the developing countries in sharing their knowledge, technology, and best practices on climate change.
The study concluded that climate change is not only an environmental challenge, but also a development challenge that requires a holistic and integrated approach. The study emphasized that addressing climate change is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the Africa Agenda 2063, and for ensuring a prosperous and resilient future for Africa and the world.
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