How Lai Ching-te’s victory could reshape China-Taiwan relations
Taiwan’s vice president Lai Ching-te’s landslide win in the presidential election on Saturday has sent a clear message to Beijing: Taiwan will not bow to China’s pressure and will defend its sovereignty and democracy. Lai’s victory could have significant implications for the future of cross-Strait relations, as well as for the role of the United States and other regional actors.
Lai, who belongs to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has been a vocal critic of China’s aggressive and coercive actions toward Taiwan. He has also advocated for Taiwan’s international recognition and participation, and has expressed support for the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. Lai has rejected the so-called 1992 Consensus, which Beijing claims is the basis for cross-Strait dialogue and stability. Instead, he has affirmed Taiwan’s status as a sovereign and independent country, and has called for a new framework of peaceful coexistence with China.
Lai’s stance has angered Beijing, which views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. China has intensified its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure on Taiwan, hoping to isolate and intimidate the island. China has also warned the United States and other countries not to interfere in its internal affairs or support Taiwan’s independence.
However, Lai’s victory shows that China’s strategy has backfired, and that the majority of Taiwanese people are not willing to compromise their freedom and identity for the sake of economic benefits or security guarantees from China. Lai’s victory also reflects the growing sense of solidarity and resilience among the Taiwanese people, especially the younger generation, who have witnessed the erosion of democracy and human rights in Hong Kong and the rise of authoritarianism and nationalism in China.
Lai’s victory could have several consequences for the future of cross-Strait relations. First, it could increase the risk of conflict and confrontation, as China may resort to more drastic measures to subdue Taiwan, such as military coercion, cyberattacks, or sabotage. China may also try to exploit the domestic and international challenges that Taiwan faces, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic slowdown, the drought, and the lack of diplomatic allies. Lai will have to balance his firmness and prudence in dealing with China, and avoid provoking or escalating the situation.
Second, it could create more opportunities for dialogue and cooperation, as Lai has expressed his willingness to engage with China on the basis of mutual respect and dignity. Lai has also said he hopes to reduce tensions and maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and to seek common ground and mutual benefits with China. Lai may be able to leverage his popularity and legitimacy to initiate a new phase of cross-Strait relations, and to explore new areas of collaboration, such as public health, environmental protection, and cultural exchange.
Third, it could reshape the role of the United States and other regional actors in the cross-Strait dynamics. The United States, which is Taiwan’s most important security partner and arms supplier, has congratulated Lai and reaffirmed its commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act, which provides for the defense of Taiwan in case of an attack by China. The United States has also expressed its support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations and forums, and has increased its official and unofficial contacts with Taiwan. The United States may continue to enhance its cooperation and coordination with Taiwan, and to deter and counter China’s threats and provocations.
Other regional actors, such as Japan, Australia, India, and the European Union, may also play a more active and constructive role in the cross-Strait relations. These actors share Taiwan’s values and interests, and have a stake in the stability and prosperity of the region. They may increase their economic, political, and security ties with Taiwan, and provide more support and assistance to the island. They may also engage with China and urge it to respect Taiwan’s autonomy and dignity, and to refrain from using force or coercion.
Lai’s victory could mark a turning point in the history of China-Taiwan relations. It could either lead to more conflict and confrontation, or to more dialogue and cooperation. It could also reshape the role of the United States and other regional actors in the cross-Strait dynamics. The future of cross-Strait relations will depend on how Lai and Xi Jinping, the leaders of Taiwan and China, manage their differences and pursue their interests, and how they respond to the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
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